At least three Midwest states to lose seats in next reapportionment

The Midwest is expected to lose three congressional seats and electoral college votes — and maybe more — during the nation’s next reapportionment, the political consulting firm Election Data Services notes in its most recent analysis of population trends.
The firm’s findings are based on U.S. Census Bureau estimates from December. That data show Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota losing one seat each. Ohio also loses one when trends are projected to 2020 — the year when populations are calculated to determine each state’s number of U.S. House seats. These numbers also impact the distribution of federal funds to states and local communities.

Minnesota’s population grew at a faster rate than the nation’s between 2017 and 2018; if this trend continues, its seat number could be unchanged in the next reapportionment. On the flip side, Illinois appears close to losing two seats. 

The Midwest and Northeast have been losing congressional seats and electoral college votes for decades. In 1972, for example, this 11-state region held 133 Electoral College votes; that was 49.2 percent of the 270 needed to win the presidency. In contrast, in 2016, 108 of the Electoral College votes came from the Midwest (40 percent of the total needed to win).
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Stateline Midwest: February 20193.14 MB