Four states in Midwest projected to lose congressional seats, Electoral College votes in next reapportionment
|Wednesday, June 29, 2016 at 12:52 PM
The Midwest stands to lose four U.S. House seats and four Electoral College votes following the 2020 Census and reapportionment, if population-shift projections from Election Data Services, Inc., are correct.
EDS uses the U.S. Census Bureau’s total population estimates for its forecast.
The political consulting firm predicts Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio will each lose one House seat once all 435 are redistributed by population after the next census. In all, nine U.S. states are projected to lose a seat after 2020 (the others are Alabama, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia).
States gaining influence (both in the U.S. Congress and the Electoral College) are Texas (three additional seats and votes); Florida (+2); and Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Oregon (+1). If this comes to pass, the 2024 presidential election (first one following 2020’s reapportionment) will continue the Midwest’s long-term electoral muscle atrophy.
In the 1972 presidential election, the region held 133 Electoral College votes — 49.2 percent of the 270 needed to win. This year, the region’s 108 votes account for 40 percent. If EDS’ projection is accurate, the region’s 104 votes will be just 38.5 percent of the total come the 2024 presidential contest.
However, Kimball Brace, president of the EDS, notes that unforeseen circumstances can change growth patterns and reapportionment, with Hurricane Katrina and the “Great Recession” being two recent examples.
“A lot of things could change before the next census is taken in 2020,” he says.
To calculate state gains and losses with the next reapportionment, EDS used U.S. Census Bureau data tracking population changes between 2010 and 2015 in order to project shifts over the next five years.
|Stateline Midwest: June/July 2016||2.51 MB|