New Study Projects State-by-State Job Losses under ACA Repeal

A new study from the Commonwealth Fund finds that repeal of two major federal spending provisions of the Affordable Care Act, insurance premium tax credits and the expansion of Medicaid, would ultimately lead to the loss of 2.6 million jobs in 2019. The data, generated by researchers at George Washington, breaks down the impact of repeal for each state. California would lose the most jobs, 334,000 their multistate economic forecasting model suggests, and Wyoming the least with 4,000 jobs lost.

 

Further, the researchers conclude that the loss of federal funding for the tax credits and Medicaid expansion would lead to a loss of gross state products amounting to $1.5 trillion between 2019 and 2023 and $2.6 trillion lower business output. Consequently, state and local tax revenues would take a related loss of $48 billion over five years.

The study does not factor in any “replacement” provisions. Whether repeal of the ACA will be immediate or phased-in over time and whether repeal will be accompanied by specific replacement proposals are open questions.   

Joe Antos, a health policy expert at American Enterprise Institute, generally considered a right-leaning think tank, said to CNN Money it is that unrealistic to assume Congress would repeal the ACA without a replacement plan in place. He told CNN Money that he thought it likely Congress would approve more federal health care spending, not less, although Republicans might reduce funding for programs they dislike, such as Medicaid. 

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