CSG Webinar: Health Reform Bracketology: What the Future May Hold. June 21, 2012

Think of it as June Madness—a little like the March Madness of college basketball, only with the Affordable Care Act as the major player.

Leavitt Partners, a health care intelligence company, developed a bracketology program to demonstrate how the future of major health care reform might play out under different scenarios. The bracketology program also allows users to make their own predictions and examine the probable outcomes.

Partner Brett Graham, analyst David Smith, and analyst Laura Summers shared with The Council of State Governments members the same strategic planning information that Leavitt Partners provides to its corporate clients during a webinar June 21.  In just 30 minutes, they were able to run through a number of possible scenarios and provide predictions on the probabilities of the various scenarios.

Analyzing the imminent Supreme Court decision, they looked at the ACA through the lens of the Anti-Injunction Act, the constitutionality of the individual mandate, the severability of the ACA and the constitutionality of the Medicaid expansion.

Examining the 2012 elections, Leavitt Partners laid out the different combinations of which party will control the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate, and how the political outcomes combine with various possible Supreme Court decisions. They also considered how the fiscal cliff—$7.5 trillion in combined tax cuts and program reductions due to begin Jan. 1, 2013—impacts health reforms. In the final round of the bracketology (after the court decision and the election), Leavitt Partners made predictions  on Medicaid expansion, Medicaid maintenance of eligibility, Medicaid demonstrations, premium subsidies, health insurance exchanges and payment reform.

Leavitt Partners was founded by Michael Leavitt, a three-term governor of Utah and cabinet member in President George W. Bush's administration.

  Download the slides in PDF

Health Reform Bracketology: What the Future May Hold

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