Fiscal Outlook

This presentation discusses some of the actions taken by states in grappling with the serious fiscal challenges that have arisen in the past few years. It consists of two interconnected parts. Part I looks at broad national economic trends and some trends at the state level. Part II delves into some of the more innovative strategies adopted by policymakers to overcome the budget shortfalls that have plagued states for almost four consecutive years now.

The state fiscal boom of the late 1990s was driven by exceptional forces unlikely to be repeated in the years ahead. The bursting of this fiscal bubble has made the current budget crisis far worse than the relatively mild current economic weakness might suggest. Even after the economy recovers, state finances are likely to be tight for the next several years.